Executive Summary: The proliferation of social media over the past two decades has had a significant influence on our world, influencing what we buy, how we interact with others, who we vote for, and how we view the world. Despite the benefits of social media, including increased connectivity and creating...
Rising Tide: The Age of AI
Executive Summary: Since OpenAI’s ChatGPT was made public just over a year ago, artificial intelligence (AI) has been one of the biggest stories, investment or otherwise, in 2023. Not surprisingly, rapid acceleration in the space – and in related spaces such as synthetic biology, robotics, and quantum computing – has...
The Fourth Turning
Executive Summary: Authors Neil Howe and William Strauss published a book called The Fourth Turning in 1997, introducing their theory about the seasonality of American history over more than 500 years. They propose that four seasons, or Turnings, play out in society, much like in nature, however, they do so...
Debt Ceiling Update
In late January we published a piece titled “Knife Fight” about the potential storm brewing over our country’s impending debt ceiling. In addition to providing some historical information on the topic, which we are not going to reproduce here, that note concluded, in part, with the following: The issue has...
The Psychology of Money
Executive Summary: Much like any subject matter these days, there is no shortage of expert advice offered up by the financial industry via traditional and social media sources. Advice often comes in the way of stock recommendations, thematic investment ideas, and investment strategies provided by people considered to be successful...
Bond Basics: Inflation Update
Inflation is moving lower, and economic data reports have surprised to the downside, but the Federal Reserve remains steadfast and likely to increase rates again at its July meeting next week after taking a pause in June. Why continue down this tightening path when it seems clear we are moving...
Bond Basics: Treasury Issuance
In the aftermath of the politically contentious and headline-grabbing debt ceiling debate, one of the areas of potential fallout lies in the Treasury market as the government must now refill its cash balance which reached dangerously low levels. Now that the debt ceiling has been raised through 2025, the Treasury...
Earth Day – Prisoner’s Dilemma
Executive Summary: This Saturday, April 22, marks the 53rd anniversary of the original Earth Day back in 1970, which helped catalyze the modern environmental movement. Looking back to that time, we find books such as Silent Spring, Small is Beautiful, The Limits to Growth, etc. built upon a literary...
Geopolitics: From Coordination to Completion
Executive Summary: The period of globalization following World War II brought great economic prosperity and raised the standard of living in many parts of the world. However, globalization appears to be reversing course to some degree, changing the dynamic of the relationship between countries like the US and China from...
Federal Reserve Update
Recent events in the banking sector and continued market volatility raised questions regarding whether the Federal Reserve would continue its planned interest rate increases to fight inflation. Some of those questions were answered after Wednesday’s meeting, as the Fed raised the target interest rate another 25 basis points, its 9th...