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Updated: 20 hours ago


By Michael Allison, CFA


An important element of successful investing is the ability to see the forest for the trees—not losing sight of the bigger picture of your longer term investment goals.


However in the recent past, it’s been difficult to even see the tree for the bark with the seemingly minute-to-minute changing investment landscape.


I’ve recently shared my efforts to understand that changing landscape by discussing accelerating markets, fat tails, correlation regimes, the absence and then rapid emergence of volatility, and the idea of volatility as a diversifying asset class.


This week I thought it might be helpful—at least to me—to zoom way out and discuss the forest, recognizing that we really are living through history. I found this week’s Chart on the brilliant and prolific Bruce Mehlman’s Substack—The Age of Disruption.



Crisis Consensus

In his recent Six-Chart Sunday installment, “Crisis Consensus,” Bruce dissects the paradox of a world simultaneously gripped by crises and yet seemingly paralyzed by consensus. He argues that while the public perceives escalating threats—ranging from geopolitical tensions to economic instability—outside of a new Administration that some view as reckless, the political and institutional responses remain tepid, hindered by entrenched partisanship and a lack of decisive leadership.


Bruce illustrates this dichotomy through six compelling charts:

  1. Public Perception vs. Political Action: Despite widespread acknowledgment of pressing issues, until recently, there has been a notable disconnect between public concern and governmental action.

  2. Partisan Polarization: The charts reveal how deep-seated political divisions impede consensus-building, even in the face of common threats.

  3. Erosion of Institutional Trust: A significant decline in trust toward key institutions undermines collective problem-solving efforts.

  4. Media Fragmentation: The proliferation of niche media outlets contributes to divergent realities, complicating unified responses to crises.

  5. Economic Disparities: Growing economic inequalities exacerbate societal tensions and hinder cohesive policy-making.

  6. Global Challenges Require Unified Responses: Many issues necessitate coordinated action, yet nationalistic tendencies often prevail.


Bruce’s analysis suggests that the prevailing “crisis consensus” is not a call to action but rather a state of inertia, where acknowledgment of problems does not translate into solutions. He emphasizes the need for leadership and a reinvigoration of democratic institutions to navigate these complex challenges effectively.


The world is in transition, so from an investment perspective, I think it’s important to be both patient AND opportunistic. Easier said than done, of course—but necessary.


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